Thursday, February 02, 2006
Slot Systems Status Report
For those who don't want to do the math, I thought I would give a status report on my slot machine sessions so far.
I have run 26 sessions on 6 of John Patrick's slot methods. Of those 26 sessions, 7 have been winners and 19 have been losers.
The one good thing is that my winning sessions have tended to outweigh my losers. So it has come close to evening out.
I have won $201.30 on my winning sessions. I have lost $296.55 on my losing sessions. So I am down $95.25 from where I started.
That is with my one screwed up $70.45 loss thrown in. That session broke most of John Patrick's money management rules. So it can't really be blamed on him.
(For those just joining us, one session I hit the wrong button and was betting 100 times what I thought I was betting. I ended up losing $70 instead before I realized my mistake.)
In fact, I was on a 60% loss limit on those sessions, so I should have walked away when I was down $15.
So if you factor out the extra $55 I lost on that session, I would only be down about 40 bucks.
The standard negative expectation at slots hovers around 90%, maybe a litte under. On average, online casinos, which have a lower overhead, have a negative expectation closer to 94%.
Since I estimate that I've wagered around $500 during my slots sessions, my negative expectation should be around $30.
Therefore, if you take out my $55 screwup, I am down about $40. That means I'm within ten dollars of my negative expectation.
So there you have it.
That's probably a good indication of what to expect from slots money management systems.
All in all, money management isn't going to beat the house edge. No matter how you arrange your bets, you are going to have a negative expectation. You have to beat the odds if you are going to take home a profit from a slot machine.
You don't need me to tell you that, though. Logic will tell you that.
But you know, my one screwed up session might actually show the value of a money management system.
The one time I diverted from John Patrick's system and bet larger than I originally intended, my bank account took a big hit. If you follow a money management scheme rigidly, you will never lose more in the heat of the moment than you intended to when you were driving to a casino.
If you are the type of gambler who has trouble reigning himself or herself in, then you might listen to a money management guru's advice.
Just don't think these systems are going to make you profitable.
I have run 26 sessions on 6 of John Patrick's slot methods. Of those 26 sessions, 7 have been winners and 19 have been losers.
The one good thing is that my winning sessions have tended to outweigh my losers. So it has come close to evening out.
I have won $201.30 on my winning sessions. I have lost $296.55 on my losing sessions. So I am down $95.25 from where I started.
That is with my one screwed up $70.45 loss thrown in. That session broke most of John Patrick's money management rules. So it can't really be blamed on him.
(For those just joining us, one session I hit the wrong button and was betting 100 times what I thought I was betting. I ended up losing $70 instead before I realized my mistake.)
In fact, I was on a 60% loss limit on those sessions, so I should have walked away when I was down $15.
So if you factor out the extra $55 I lost on that session, I would only be down about 40 bucks.
The standard negative expectation at slots hovers around 90%, maybe a litte under. On average, online casinos, which have a lower overhead, have a negative expectation closer to 94%.
Since I estimate that I've wagered around $500 during my slots sessions, my negative expectation should be around $30.
Therefore, if you take out my $55 screwup, I am down about $40. That means I'm within ten dollars of my negative expectation.
So there you have it.
That's probably a good indication of what to expect from slots money management systems.
All in all, money management isn't going to beat the house edge. No matter how you arrange your bets, you are going to have a negative expectation. You have to beat the odds if you are going to take home a profit from a slot machine.
You don't need me to tell you that, though. Logic will tell you that.
But you know, my one screwed up session might actually show the value of a money management system.
The one time I diverted from John Patrick's system and bet larger than I originally intended, my bank account took a big hit. If you follow a money management scheme rigidly, you will never lose more in the heat of the moment than you intended to when you were driving to a casino.
If you are the type of gambler who has trouble reigning himself or herself in, then you might listen to a money management guru's advice.
Just don't think these systems are going to make you profitable.
